Computational Methods in Problems of Subjective Assessment of Investment Decisions Effectiveness

УДК 519.688:33

  • E.V. Danko Altai State University (Barnaul, Russia) Email: evdanko88@gmail.com
  • Ye.K. Yergaliyev Sarsen Amanzholov East Kazakhstan State University (Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan) Email: ergaliev79@mail.ru
  • M.N. Madiyarov Sarsen Amanzholov East Kazakhstan State University (Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan) Email: madiyarov_mur@mail.ru
DOI_disc_logo https://doi.org/10.14258/izvasu(2020)1-12
Keywords: subjective utility function, evaluation of usefulness of decisions, evaluation of results of investment, scenario analysis of investment project, method analyzing effectiveness of investment

Abstract

The paper describes the implementation of investment projects under conditions of uncertainty. In the developed mathematical model, the effectiveness of an investment project is evaluated by the NPV index. This index is considered a random variable that can be estimated by an investor to within a segment [NPV1;NPV2]. The main difficulties of the decision-making process arise when the segment [NPV1;NPV2] includes zero value. In the developed model, we use the probability density function of NPV value in the form of Pearson curves of the first type. This paper discusses in detail some particular moments, which are to be taken into consideration while choosing a specific type of probability density function of NPV.

The main element of the proposed model is the subjective utility function. Many questions regarding the usage of this function in practice are also extensively reviewed in this article. The main requirement for successful usage of the subjective utility function in real life is a well-calculated chapter of scenario analysis of an investment project. This chapter is present in almost all modern business plans. The practical application of the developed mathematical model improves the quality of decisions concerning the investment of funds into projects.

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Author Biographies

E.V. Danko, Altai State University (Barnaul, Russia)

доцент кафедры прикладной информатики в экономике, государственном и муниципальном управлении

Ye.K. Yergaliyev, Sarsen Amanzholov East Kazakhstan State University (Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan)

кандидат физико-математических наук, заведующий кафедрой математики

M.N. Madiyarov, Sarsen Amanzholov East Kazakhstan State University (Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan)

кандидат технических наук, профессор кафедры математики

References

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Данько Е.В. Оценка параметров функции субъективной полезности // Известия Алт. гос. ун-та. 2017. № 1 (93). DOI: 10.14258/izvasu(2017)1-12.

Published
2020-03-06
How to Cite
Danko E., Yergaliyev Y., Madiyarov M. Computational Methods in Problems of Subjective Assessment of Investment Decisions Effectiveness // Izvestiya of Altai State University, 2020, № 1(111). P. 77-82 DOI: 10.14258/izvasu(2020)1-12. URL: http://izvestiya.asu.ru/article/view/%282020%291-12.
Issue
No 1(111) (2020): Izvestiya of Altai State University
Section
Математика и механика

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