Building Mathematical Models of Altai Region Industries Development

  • П.И. Кузьмин Altai State University Email: kuzminpi@mail.ru
  • В.В. Мищенко Altai State University Email: ikmischenko@mail.ru
DOI_disc_logo https://doi.org/10.14258/izvasu(2017)1-19
Keywords: gross added value, econometric model, Kobb-Douglas production function

Abstract

Nowadays, manufacturing and trade are the main industries in most non-resource areas of the Russian Federation. In agricultural regions, such as the Altai region, the agricultural sector is the large share of the gross regional product. The paper deals with the analysis of two leading industries development in Altai region economy: «manufacturing industry» and «agricultural sector». The analysis is conducted on the basis of statistical data and an econometric model. The econometric model is based on the modification of the Cobb-Douglas production function for specific sectors of Altai region economy for the period of 2005-2014. The calculations are made according to the prices of the year 2005. Elasticity coefficients for those industries are evaluated with the annual index-deflator of gross fixed capital formation for the period 2005-2014. The authors point out that R2 determination coefficient is high enough for the «manufacturing in-dustry» model. However, the increase of employment in «manufacturing» will not lead to a significant increase of the gross added value. The situation is even more complicated for the «agricultural sector». According to the estimates, current investments will not provide a significant increase in the production growth rate. By adding the crop acreage of the region to calculations, the model still shows insignificant influence to the production growth rate. The paper demonstrates the great dependence between the “agricultural sector” production and the number of fixed assets.

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How to Cite
Кузьмин П., Мищенко В. Building Mathematical Models of Altai Region Industries Development // Izvestiya of Altai State University, 1, № 1(93) DOI: 10.14258/izvasu(2017)1-19. URL: http://izvestiya.asu.ru/article/view/%282017%291-19.
Issue
No 1(93) (2017): Известия Алтайского государственного университета
Section
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