Assessing Probability Characteristics of Reservoir Operation Using Bayesian Technology
УДК 519.237.8
Abstract
This study explores the use of Bayes' theorem to determine the probability characteristics of reservoir operation, specifically in cases where the reservoir capacity is exceeded or sustained within its active storage capacity. The investigation focuses on moments of streamflow increase during the spring flood and water shortage in the fall. The study aims to develop methods for regulating reservoir runoff using Bayesian technology, with specific tasks including developing a calculation algorithm to estimate the probabilistic characteristics of reservoir operation based on the Bayes formula with a seasonal division of the water management year, identi-fying the necessary probabilistic characteristics of reservoir filling and water recovery, and solving the inverse problem using the Bayes formula to determine the required initial filling at given values of the reservoir filling and its probability by the end of the calculated time interval. The study's relevance is rooted in the need to determine the probability characteristics of reservoir filling and water discharge to consumers during streamflow regulation.
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Copyright (c) 2023 Виталий Витальевич Ильинич , Алексей Васильевич Перминов , Надежда Владимировна Гавриловская
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